Closure of schools due to COVID-19

One thing we do know for certain is that the COVID-19 pandemic will have lasting effects on our schools and students. Australia’s health system and economy – as with the rest of the world – will endure long-term impacts from COVID-19. It will not be possible to simply return to how things were prior to the outbreak.

A recent survey of teachers and school leaders in Australia and New Zealand conducted by Pivot and Education Perfect found that 80 per cent believed students would need extra instructional support when they go back to school, but the top three concerns were of social isolation, a decrease in student wellbeing and learning loss.3

The rapid onset of the pandemic, the devolved federal nature of our education system, and differential access to technology across school communities mean that experiences of school-led remote learning have varied significantly. Schools have scrambled to prepare materials that can be accessed from outside the classroom while also providing educators the means to connect with students using various videoconferencing and online collaboration tools. But this also requires students to have access to the devices and bandwidth necessary to participate. For some students, particularly those from disadvantaged backgrounds or in at-risk situations, this simply has not been possible.

However, lessons can be learned from these challenging times and positives can be found. There have been anecdotal reports of an increase in positive parental perception of schools and educators due to increased parental engagement with their children’s education. Many teachers have quickly upskilled and adjusted to increased use of technology. Interestingly, one education Minister called for permanent changes to the school system after some students performed better during remote learning, including those students who had been previously disengaged or distracted in classrooms, and high-ability students who have had the freedom to learn at their own pace.4

Internationally, events that have significantly affected traditional face-to-face education and forced a transition to remote teaching and learning, such as the 2011 Christchurch earthquakes, have resulted in a positive trend in education outcomes. A New Zealand qualifications authority noted that high school student performance improved in the final exams after the earthquakes, observing that the difference was that teachers could focus on ‘what had to be learned’ in a more streamlined curriculum.5

Almost 1.6 billion students across the world were affected by school closured because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Even short disruptions in a child’s schooling have significant negative effects on their learning and can be long-lasting. These losses may translate to greater long-term impacts, with the burden falling heaviest on the disadvantaged.  

In our recent paper, we examined 35 rigorous studies from 20 countries which reveal three key issues: 

1. Most studies (32) find evidence of learning loss. Of the 35 studies reporting learning loss, 27 reported findings in a comparable effect size format. Most studies found learning losses ranging from 0.25 to 0.12 standard deviations (SDs). In five studies, learning losses were even greater. The average learning loss across these studies is 0.17 standard deviations – which equates to over half a school year of learning loss. 

1. The studies consistently find different levels of learning loss by student socio-economic status, past academic learning, and subject of learning. In our review, 20 studies examined learning loss by socio-economic status. Of these, 15 find greater learning loss among students or schools with lower socio-economic status, while 5 fail to find a statistically significant difference. Many studies have also found learning loss to be worse for students who had struggled academically prior to the pandemic. Of the studies that included this measure, 11 documented greater learning losses for students at lower levels of academic achievement, while 3 documented greater learning losses for students with greater past academic achievement.  

1. The longer the schools remained closed, the greater were the learning losses. For the 19 countries for which we have robust learning loss data, average school closures were 15 weeks, leading to average learning losses of 0.18 standard deviations. Put another way, for every week that schools were closed, learning declined by 1.2 point, or 0.01 standard deviations, on average. Most of our robust data come from 12 European countries. Given similar starting conditions overall (such as GDP per capita, access to connectivity and devices), these countries provide compelling evidence that the pandemic-related school closures led to learning losses. In these European countries, average school closures were 11 weeks in duration, and average learning losses were 0.16 standard deviations. Therefore, for every week of school closure, learning losses were about 1.5 points, or 0.015 standard deviations, per month. 

We present findings in terms of standard deviation change of the treatment (post-covid) group from the pre-covid control group. Following standard practice, we convert results presented in months of loss to standard deviations, with 1 school year of learning equal to 0.33 standard deviations. As Figure 1 shows, the first wave of COVID-19-induced lockdowns and school closures beginning in March 2020 resulted, on average, in students’ losing about one-third to a half years’ worth of learning. These learning losses may impact a student’s education trajectory, as the lost learning is likely to limit opportunities to advance to higher levels of schooling.  There are also long-term future earnings losses associated with lost human capital, with students potentially losing trillions of dollars in future income.  

Figure 1: Range of learning loss (in SDs) in the 27 studies reporting comparable effect sizes 

Indeed, the longer that schools remained closed, the greater the learning losses.  As Figure 2 shows, the more weeks that schools remained closed, the higher the average student learning losses (in standard deviations). 

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