Arkansas vs ole miss baseball prediction

OMAHA, Neb. — So they meet again.

Ole Miss baseball will face off against Arkansas for the second time in three days and the fifth time in less than two months on Wednesday (6 p.m., ESPN). The Rebels need a win to eliminate the Razorbacks and move on to the College World Series championship series for the first time in program history. The Razorbacks need a win to stave off elimination and force a winner-takes-all matchup between Ole Miss and Arkansas on Thursday.

Behind an early offensive surge and a dominant pitching performance from starter Hunter Elliott, the Rebels easily took down the Razorbacks Monday. But things could be quite different Wednesday, as the Rebels venture into untested waters with their pitching and Arkansas still has some of its top arms available.

Here is the Clarion Ledger's scouting report and prediction for Wednesday's game.

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Ole Miss pitching vs. Arkansas offense

Senior left-hander John Gaddis will make his first start since April 9 on Wednesday. Gaddis has been effective in relief since the start of May, posting a 2.31 ERA.

Given the way Elliott thrived as a left-hander against Arkansas' lefty-heavy lineup, Bianco is trying to recapture that magic. But behind him, the Rebels should have the full strength of its bullpen available, including hard-throwing right-hander Brandon Johnson, slider-throwing fireman Josh Mallitz and right-hander Jack Dougherty, who hasn't allowed an earned run since April 30.

Arkansas' offense put stress on Elliott in the early innings Monday but went cold in the middle of the game, allowing Elliott to settle in. This was the only time anyone has had that kind of success against the Razorbacks lineup in Omaha, where Arkansas scored 17 runs against Stanford and 11 runs against Auburn.

Advantage: Gaddis is a good pitcher, but he struggled starting in SEC play this year. The depth of Ole Miss' bullpen is a strength, but give the hot-hitting Razorbacks the edge.

Arkansas pitching vs. Ole Miss offense

The good news for Arkansas is it got serious length from Tuesday's starter Will McEntire, so just about its entire pitching staff should be available. Left-hander Hagen Smith and right-hander Brady Tygart haven't thrown yet in Omaha. The first three pitchers the Razorbacks used Monday — Zack Morris, Kole Ramage and Evan Taylor — all threw fewer than 25 pitches and should be able to throw an inning or two as well.

The big question will be about the availability of ace Connor Noland. Noland threw 79 pitches in 7 ⅔ innings on Saturday and will be one day short of regular Major League rest. It's conceivable that he could be used in a pinch.

But like Arkansas' offense, Ole Miss' offense is hot. The Rebels already squared up Morris, Ramage and Taylor and won a game against Noland six weeks ago. Ole Miss proved it could score runs against All-America caliber pitchers in the Coral Gables Regional and the Hattiesburg Super Regional and have the added advantage of an extra day off that Arkansas doesn't have.

Advantage: As long as Ole Miss' offense stays hot, it's hard to pick against them. But Arkansas has a lot of arms at its disposal. Hagen and Tygart in particular pitched really well against the Rebels in the regular season and could be tough matchups.

Prediction: Ole Miss wins a slugfest 

These offenses are both really good. Sure, Arkansas has a lot of its best relievers available and Ole Miss' bullpen has been hot all postseason. But by the time teams reach this part of the College World Series, the quality of starting pitching tends to take a dip.

Both teams should be able to score in bunches early. Both teams should be able to pull it out at the end. But by virtue of Ole Miss having the extra off day and the confidence of its seven-game postseason winning streak, it's hard to pick against the Rebels coming out with the edge.

Contact Nick Suss at 601-408-2674 or . Follow @nicksuss on Twitter.

OMAHA, Neb. — Ole Miss baseball will potentially play the biggest game in its 121-year history on Thursday.

The Rebels will face Arkansas on Thursday in a winner-takes-all College World Series elimination game after losing 3-2 on Wednesday. The winner advances to the championship series against Oklahoma, beginning on Saturday, and the loser heads home for the offseason – finishing three wins short of a national championship.

Arkansas' history is littered with these kinds of games. Though the Razorbacks have never won a national championship, they won semifinal games in 1979 and 2018 to advance to the championship and lost do-or-die semifinals in 1985 and 2012.

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Ole Miss, meanwhile, hasn't been in this position since 1956 in a College World Series that included teams from five conferences that no longer exist.

Both teams are throwing their aces; Ole Miss is giving the ball to junior righthander Dylan DeLucia and Arkansas is calling on senior righthander Connor Noland. Ole Miss will have its top arsenal of relievers available, while Arkansas might have to resort to some of its back-end arms if Noland can't throw for length. And both teams have strong offenses that have shown the ability to feast on bullpens all postseason.

Here is the Clarion Ledger's scouting report and prediction for Thursday's game.

Ole Miss pitching vs. Arkansas offense

DeLucia has been excellent this postseason, owning a 2.33 ERA with 31 strikeouts in 19⅓ innings. Frankly, he's been excellent as a starting pitcher, posting a 2.85 ERA in 66⅓ innings across 11 starts. 

DeLucia only failed to finish five innings in three of those starts. Unfortunately for Ole Miss, two of those three came on irregular rest. He was shelled for three runs in 1⅔ innings on four days rest against Texas A&M and then hit hard for two runs in 4⅓ innings on four days rest versus Vanderbilt.

Put another way: DeLucia's ERA as a starting pitcher on regular or long rest is 2.39. His ERA on short rest is 7.50, albeit in a small sample.

Give Ole Miss' pitching staff credit: Arkansas is averaging 10 runs per game in the NCAA Tournament against teams that aren't Ole Miss but only has seven runs in two games against the Rebels. With Brandon Johnson, Josh Mallitz and Mason Nichols fully rested for Thursday, Ole Miss should be able to put together a patchwork game plan and only need three or four quality innings from DeLucia.

Advantage: DeLucia's track record on short rest is scary. Don't expect things to go as poorly as they did against Texas A&M, but against this Arkansas lineup it might be tough to extend. Give the Hogs the advantage.

Arkansas pitching vs. Ole Miss offense

Noland hasn't started on short rest this season, so it's hard to guess how he'll fare. He threw as a reliever on one day rest in the Stillwater Regional and was crushed for three runs on two hits while recording one out. But there's a big difference between recovering from 79 pitches in four days and recovering from 89 pitches in one day.

If there's any built-in advantage Ole Miss might have, it's that Arkansas may have exhausted its quality lefthanders. Noland throws with his right hand and the Razorbacks used southpaws Hagen Smith (90 pitches), Evan Taylor (31 pitches) and Zack Morris (15 pitches) on Wednesday.

This season, Ole Miss is hitting .246 against lefthanded pitching and .294 against righthanded pitching. The Razorbacks' only lefthander who didn't throw Wednesday is Nick Griffin, a freshman who hasn't pitched since May 3 and who didn't appear in any SEC games this season.

Advantage: Noland is a tough pitcher to crack. There's a reason opponents bat .250 against him and he has 106 strikeouts. If Noland works long, the Razorbacks have a huge advantage. If the Rebels can get to Arkansas' bullpen, Ole Miss will be in business.

Prediction: Arkansas moves on

It's a battle of the unknown with Noland against the known with DeLucia. Maybe DeLucia bucks the trend and turns in another legend-worthy performance. Especially with the bullpen arms he has ready behind him, he shouldn't need to throw more than four quality innings to keep the Rebels alive. 

That all can happen. It just doesn't feel like the likeliest outcome. Ole Miss falls behind early and chips away late, but the Razorbacks have a little too much offense and Noland does enough to get the Hogs back to the College World Series final.

Contact Nick Suss at 601-408-2674 or . Follow @nicksuss on Twitter.

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