Tim ryan vs jd vance polls

Democratic Congressman Tim Ryan has a narrow lead over Republican J.D. Vance in the still too-close-to-call race for Ohio's Senate seat, according to a poll.

A survey of 642 likely Ohio voters conducted between September 18-22 placed Ryan ahead of the Donald Trump-endorsed Vance by 46 percent to 43 percent.

The poll from Spectrum News/Siena College means that of the last eight surveys ahead of the midterms, Ryan has beaten his GOP rival five times, with Vance coming out on top in the other three in what is one of the most difficult races to predict in November's elections.

According to FiveThirtyEight's average collection of polls, Ryan is the current favorite to win the Ohio seat over Vance, albeit by a likelihood of just 0.5 percent (45 to 44.5 percent).

Democratic Congressman Tim Ryan (R) is leading Republican author J.D. Vance (L) in the polls ahead of the midterm elections. The men are vying to fill Ohio's open U.S. Senate seat. AP

A Marist survey of 1,200 adults conducted September 12-15 had the Hillbilly Elegy author on top over Ryan with a 46 to 45 percent lead, a statistical dead heat.

The poll found that while 40 percent of Ohio residents surveyed had a favorable opinion of Ryan, 35 percent had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him. One quarter said they had an unfavorable view of the Democrat.

In comparison, 30 percent had a favorable view of Vance, with 36 percent having a negative one. Similar to Ryan, 34 percent of Ohio voters surveyed said they had either never heard of or were unsure how to rate Vance.

"This open senate seat is hotly contested and is top of the list for political pundits," said Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. "Expect both campaigns to paint their opponent in a negative way given that each candidate has low name recognition and is not well-defined to voters."

Other polls in September also show just how close the U.S. Senate race is in Ohio. A Baldwin Wallace University poll gave Ryan with a 3-point lead over Vance (48 to 45 percent), with 7 percent still undecided.

Just prior to that survey being released, an Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll of Ohio voters showed Vance with a 4-point lead over Ryan (44 to 40 percent), with 13 percent of voters still undecided.

Vance also had a 3-point lead in a Civiqs survey of 780 likely voters in Ohio from September 10-13, with Ryan having a 3-point lead in a Montrose Group Opportunity survey conducted around the same time.

Ryan led the first two polls released in September from Suffolk University and Change Research by 1 point and 5 points respectively.

Newsweek reached out to Representative Ryan for comment.

Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) is leading Republican J.D. Vance by 3 percentage points in Ohio’s closely watched Senate race, according to a new Spectrum News-Siena College poll.

Forty-six percent of likely Ohio voters indicated support for Ryan, compared to 43 percent who said they would vote for Vance, a gap within the poll’s margin of error. Nine percent said they didn’t know or had no opinion.

“Ryan and Vance are locked in a tight battle that seems likely to remain a barnburner right up to November 8,” Steven Greenberg, a Siena College pollster, said in a statement.

Democrats are hoping to flip Ohio’s seat in the race to replace retiring Sen. Rob Portman (R), but the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the contest as “lean Republican.”

The new poll provides a more optimistic look for Ryan’s chances after multiple recent surveys showed Vance with a slight lead.

A Marist survey, which polled registered voters and was released Sept. 21, put Vance, the best-selling author of “Hillbilly Elegy,” ahead of Ryan by 1 percentage point. A poll conducted by Emerson College and The Hill earlier this month found Vance with a 4-point lead over Ryan.

The new Spectrum News-Siena College poll found Ryan with a 12-point lead among independents, garnering 47 percent support compared to Vance’s 35 percent.

A plurality of likely voters view the Ohio Democrat favorably, while Vance’s favorability rating is underwater, according to the poll.

Thirty-eight percent said they viewed Ryan favorably, compared to 33 percent who indicated the opposite. Thirty-two percent of respondents viewed Vance favorably, while 42 percent said they viewed him unfavorably.

Economic issues clocked in as the most important topic for respondents in determining their vote this November.

Forty-one percent of all respondents indicated it as their No. 1 issue, with no other topic ranking higher among Republicans and independents.

Abortion ranked as the top issue for Democrats, with 26 percent of respondents from the party indicating it as such. Economic issues outpaced abortion as the most important issue among Democrats when the pollster combined respondents’ first and second choices.

Just 8 percent of Republicans and 10 percent of independents ranked abortion as their most important issue.

“Economic issues are by far the dominant election issues for Republicans and independents, and the top issue for Democrats, although they put threats to democracy closely behind,” said Greenberg. “While abortion doesn’t make it into the top five issues for men, it’s tied with democracy as the second most important issue for women. Black voters say racial justice is their second top issue.”

The poll was conducted Sept. 18 to Sept. 22 over the phone with 642 likely Ohio voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.