What are the chances of getting a knife in a CSGO case?

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Skins Odds in CS:GO Cases
CSGO case odds revealed in Anomaly stream
How rare are CSGO knife cases?
Which case has the highest chance of getting a knife CSGO?
What are the odds in CSGO cases?
Which CSGO cases have knives?

Home » Technology » Odds of Getting Knife From CS:GO Case

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Trying to get your first knife from a case in CS:GO can be tricky. We all know how hard it is to pull out a knife skin from one case. But, did you ever wonder what are the odds for you to get one? Mathematically speaking, how many cases should one open to get a knife out of it. Majority of player knows that the odds for that are really low and they usually opt-in to third-party case opening websites in order to increase their odds. Some of those websites like https://csbet.gg/en/xray even let you see what is in the case before opening it. But do we know the exact odds to get a knife from CS:GO case? Luckily, we do because of regulations laws in China.

Skins Odds in CS:GO Cases

A lot of famous YouTubers and Streamers tried to get an answer to this question. In order to do so, they opened a great number of cases and tried to do the math. Of course, every one of them got different results. Some of them were lucky enough to get a knife out of 0,5% of cases while some of them got it from 0,15%. With further analyses and calculations, it was guessed that the chance for a knife is somewhere around 0,2% which meant you have to open 50 cases in order to get a knife. Take note that chances to get a knife on a third-party website are much higher.

The estimated number was relatively close to the real numbers. Apparently, the laws in China forbid game publishers to hide odds from loot cases as it is considered as gambling. Therefore, Valve had to come clean and they released the statement on official CS:GO Chinese version of their website.

In the statement, Valve said that exactly 10% of all skins opened from cases are StatTrak. Further, the chances to get a special item (knife or gloves) from one case is 0,26%. Considering that there is only 10% of StatTrak skins it means you have 0,026% to get a StatTrak knife from one case.

The official numbers are as following

Special Item – 0,26%
Covert – 0,64%
Classified – 3,20%
Restricted – 15,98%
Mil-spec 79,92%

Similarly to Chinese, Belgium and Netherlands governments also think opening cases is gambling. They declared loot boxes illegal. Therefore, players from those countries are banned to open in-game cases. In France, it is also illegal but Valve found a way to avoid it. They introduced a P250 X-ray scanner that can actually scan a case and see what is in it. After scanning a case, a player can decide whether he wants to open that case or not. However, the P250 X-ray scanner is locked until a player decides to open the last case it scanned. In other words, those scanners weren’t invented to prevent gambling. They were only a loophole to avoid laws and allow France citizens to open cases “legally”.

So it was my birthday last week and i decided to open 150 chroma 2's cases, so I went to contact my friend who sells keys and bought the keys from him and opened my cases. After 150 openings the best drops I've gotten were 2 mac 10 neon riders, and 10 pinks. Felt pretty bad afterwards since I got my first knife after 30 cases a couple of months ago, and I'd figure that I'd get at least 1 knife from the 150 cases ;-; Just wanna know unlucky I am, and prolly gonna spend the next couple of days getting demoted from DMG to silver after the case tilt. FeelsBadMan

Kenneth Williams • June 27, 2021 7:00 pm

Every Counter-Strike: Global Offensive player dreams of opening a knife. But what are the actual odds of getting such a coveted cosmetic?

YouTube and Twitch star Anomaly may have found the answer. He conducted a 24-hour CSGO case unboxing stream in partnership with third-party trading site Skinbaron. Anomaly bought $10,000 worth of CSGO keys and unboxed 4,000 cases in just over 20 hours. That stream is one of the cleanest and most recent sample sizes for determining the odds of CSGO cases.

Out of 4,000 CSGO cases, Anomaly opened 12 knives, 33 reds, 113 pinks, and 624 purples. While 4,000 is not enough to determine the exact internal odds of CSGO cases, the experiment does paint a pretty clear picture. Knives were exceedingly rare, reds are less than 1%, and the jump from purple to pink is pretty substantial.

CSGO case odds revealed in Anomaly stream

Exceedingly Rare – 0.3% chance
Covert – .83% chance
Classified – 2.83% chance
Restricted – 15.6% chance

Higher-rarity skins combined were 782. That’s only 19.55 % of the total CSGO case unboxings. The rest were blue skins, which are the least valuable drop even with StatTrak. Common skins can sell for as little as 8¢ on the CSGO Marketplace. In four out of every five boxes, Anomaly spent a $2.49 key on a skin worth less than a dime. His StatTrak odds hovered near a 10% average, which is the generally agreed-upon rate by CSGO players.

The CSGO case ratios were created by real human developers so the actual rarities could just be round numbers near Anomaly’s pull rate. Restricted could be 15%, Classified 3%, and Covert could be either .66% or 1%. In traditional Valve fashion, it could be much more complex under the surface. While 4,000 is a massive sample size, it’s not enough to precisely determine the actual CSGO cases odds. Anomaly’s odds may not be your odds. CSGO also shows no signs of having a pity system like those implemented in gacha games.

An important factor to consider when it comes to unboxing knives is the actual model and finish. The cheapest knives sell for around $65 on the Steam Marketplace, while the most sought after are listed for over $1,800 or are traded outside of the marketplace. The price of extremely sought-after CSGO skins can stretch well into six figures.

Anomaly’s best CSGO case unboxing was a Stilleto Knife | Doppler with the elusive Ruby pattern. One similar knife Stiletto Ruby was listed on Skinbaron for 1,099€. Ruby is one of the rarest phases for the seven-skins-in-one Doppler pattern.

The intended beginning of the stream misfired when an OBS error caused Anomaly to reveal his face on stream for the first time. The stream was shut down before beginning again shortly.

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How rare are CSGO knife cases?

CS:GO Weapon Container Odds Classified (Pink) - 3.2% Covert (Red) - 0.64% Knife/Glove - 0.26%

Which case has the highest chance of getting a knife CSGO?

Glove case Most cases feature an extra rare offering that happens to be a knife skin.

What are the odds in CSGO cases?

If you want an exact percentage of the chance of opening a knife or gloves per case, it would be 0.25575% per case. If you tried to unbox a stat track knife, that'd be around a 0.02558% chance per case.

Which CSGO cases have knives?

The Spectrum Case and Spectrum 2 Case includes these Chroma finishes on the Huntsman Knife, Butterfly Knife, Falchion Knife, Shadow Daggers and the Bowie Knife. The Prisma Case contains these Chroma finishes on the Navaja Knife, Stiletto Knife, Talon Knife, and the Ursus Knife.