How accurate are ultrasounds in determining conception date

July 14, 2018

Knowing the exact day of conception is a difficult thing. Sperm can live in a woman’s body for up to five days, making it impossible to calculate exactly when conception occurred. It is not a fine science.

In addition, women ovulate anywhere from 11 to 21 days after the first day of their last period. Ovulation varies from person to person. This is the reason why due dates are calculated from the 1st day of the last period and not from the date of conception.

Even though this can seem confusing, it has become a standard way of measuring pregnancy and calculating a due date. The due date is normally set at 40 weeks after the first day of the woman’s last period.

Fortunately, an ultrasound can help to determine gestational age. Ultrasounds are usually most accurate between the 8th and the 18th weeks. With an ultrasound, even women who don’t have periods at all can tell how far along they are.

Since only about 5% of all babies are actually born on the due date, this is only an estimation to begin with. Each baby and woman are unique individuals with their own timetables for birth. All we can do is give them a general idea what to expect!

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What is a dating scan?

A dating scan is an ultrasound examination which is performed in order to establish the gestational age of the pregnancy.

Dating scans also reveal other important information such as:

  • The number of fetuses and gestation sacs and placentas.
  • The number of fetuses and gestation sacs and placentas.
  • The presence of a heart beat.
  • The size of the fetus, from which the gestational age is estimated.
  • Features of the uterus such as the shape or the presence of fibroids.

How accurate are ultrasounds in determining conception date

How accurate are ultrasounds in determining conception date

How do we do the scan?

Most dating scans are done with a trans-abdominal ultrasound and a fullish bladder. If the pregnancy is very early the gestation sac and embryo will not be big enough to see, so the transvaginal approach will give better pictures. For transvaginal ultrasound you can have an empty bladder.

Dating scans may be recommended for women for many reasons including:

  • The first day of the last period or the likely day of conception is not known.
  • Women with irregular periods.
  • Women with an unusual cycle, for example recently stopping the oral contraceptive pill, a recent miscarriage, or concurrent breast-feeding.
  • If there is bleeding and/or pain.
  • To confirm the fetal heartbeat and viability of the pregnancy.
  • If a multiple pregnancy is suspected.

What can be seen?

At 5 ½ weeks gestation a tiny sac can be seen in the uterus, but the baby and its heartbeat may not be detected yet. 5 ½ weeks gestation means 5 ½ weeks from the first day of the last menstrual period, which is usually about 3 ½ weeks from the date of conception (confusing, isn’t it!). By 6 to 7 weeks gestation the developing baby is clearly seen on trans-vaginal ultrasound and the heartbeat can be seen at this early stage (90 to 110 beats per minute under 6 to 7 weeks, then 110 to 200 beats per minute as the baby matures).

By 8 weeks gestation the baby and its heartbeat can be detected relatively easily with trans-abdominal and trans-vaginal examination. This is presuming that the pregnancy is actually at this stage of development. Sometimes a trans-vaginal examination shows that your pregnancy is less advanced than expected.

How accurate are ultrasounds in determining conception date

How accurate are ultrasounds in determining conception date

How accurate is the ultrasound examination?

Ultrasounds performed during the first 12 weeks of pregnancy are generally within 5 days of accuracy. The most accurate time is between 8 and 11 weeks gestation. This is because the baby is growing so quickly that there is a big difference in size from week to week. 

Also, the baby cannot bend and twist too much yet, so the length of the body is fairly constant at these gestations.

However, the accuracy of the ultrasound examination is always dependent on the position of the uterus, how much tissue the probe needs to penetrate, the size of the baby, the skill of the sonographer and the quality of the equipment. 

This is why at Ultrasound Care we use the latest equipment, and all our sonographers are highly skilled. 

The scan or my dates - which should I believe?

Usually the ‘expected date of delivery’ (EDD or EDC) is calculated from your last menstrual period – if the early dating scan calculates the EDD to be within 5 days of the EDD from your last menstrual period then the ‘expected date of delivery’ (EDD or EDC) is calculated from your last menstrual period. If the last menstrual period is not known or is unreliable, or the dating scan differs from the last menstrual period dating by more than 5 days the EDD from the early dating scan is used. Bear in mind, that even women with regular 28 day menstrual cycles do not always ovulate on day 14 of the cycle, so your due date may change according to your date of conception.

As the baby gets bigger, it starts to express its individual growth potential. The size of the baby correlates less and less with its age as time goes on. For example, a baby with 190cm tall parents is likely to be longer than a baby with 160 cm tall parents.

How accurate are ultrasounds in determining conception date

Ultrasound examinations more than 12 weeks and less than 22 weeks are regarded as being within 10 days of accuracy (or up to 10 days earlier or 10 days later than the woman’s calculated due date). Ultrasounds performed after 22 weeks gestation are much less reliable in estimating the due date of the baby because the size no longer reflects the gestational age very well. Even average babies can differ by up to 2 to 3 “weeks of growth”. These scans are only used to estimate the due date of your baby if this is all you have to go on.

If you have more than one ultrasound during your pregnancy, giving you ‘multiple dates’, then the earliest ultrasound in which your baby was seen should be used, because it will be more accurate. If you have any questions about this, please feel free to talk to your sonographer or doctor about this.

To assist you in estimating the due date of the baby, please use the Ultrasound Care pregnancy calculator on our website.

Accurate dating scans are important in preparing for the delivery of your baby. Ultrasound Care has the most up to date ultrasound technology and our sonographers are highly skilled enabling us to provide reliable and accurate dating scans.

Please contact your local Ultrasound Care clinic to arrange for your dating scan ultrasound.We have locations all over Sydney.

Can ultrasound determine exact date of conception?

Fetuses grow quickly, and they also follow the same pattern of growth in virtually every case. That means that by measuring the size of the fetus and looking for certain distinguishing characteristics, an ultrasound can give an accurate estimate of when you conceived.

How accurate is ultrasound on due date?

Between 22 0/7 weeks and 27 6/7 weeks of gestation, ultrasonography dating has an accuracy of ± 10–14 days 19.

What is the most accurate conception date?

Conception usually occurs around 11-21 days after the first day of the last period of a woman who has a regular period. The estimation of conception date is based on this, but is rarely ever exact since it is difficult to know exactly when ovulation occurs.